Many adverse health effects of chemical exposure occur after repeated contact over long periods. In assessing the risks of such chronic effects in the workplace, “reasonable worst case” estimates of exposure during a shift or working day are often used. In practice, exposure varies from day to day, and between groups of workers, due to variations in factors such as working methods and patterns, exposure conditions (including level of ventilation), products used, and production level. With sufficient data on these factors, the likely total exposures over a long period can be estimated. This project aims to use computer simulation methods; to recalculate possible exposure levels thousands of times with different values for the factors that influence exposure. These exposure levels will be compared with traditional estimates of exposure. Sources of data will be explored, and gaps identified.
Tielemans E, de Pater N, Marquart H, Groenewold M and van Drooge H (2001). A probabilistic assessment of long-term exposure: inventory of possibilities for risk assessment and management. Final Report.