Cefic-lri Programme | European Chemical Industry Council

EEM4: Development of Tools for Probabilistic Uncertainty Analysis in Environmental Risk Assessment of Chemicals

Principal Investigator

Dr. Tom Aldenberg
Research Institute of Toxicology RITOX
Yalelaan, 2
NL – 3508 TD Utrecht
Tel: +31 30 274 31 37
Fax: +31 30 274 44 33


Mr. Stan Kaplan – Bayesian Systems, Inc
Mr. William Warren Hicks – Cadmus
LRI Monitor : Dr. Joanna Jaworska – Procter & Gamble


The risk to wildlife or the environment posed by a given chemical depends on whether its environmental concentration is greater than set quality objectives (the risk quotient). Both environmental concentrations and quality objectives are calculated based on chance (probability), a method that is not reliable. A chemical’s likely effects can best be assessed using the sensitivity of wildlife seen in tests on each species (ecotoxicology.) This project aims to develop computer software to integrate data from various sources, making probabilistic uncertainty analysis available to beginners as well as experts in environmental risk assessment. Ways to deal with the uncertainties of the risk of chemicals will be applied to current technical and managerial procedures used to evaluate chemicals in the EU.

Related Publications

Publications and Final Report expected end August 2002.

Timeline: May 2000 > August 2002

LRI funding: € 664,000 (co-sponsored 180,000 US$ by ACC)

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